Foresight as a Leadership Attribute

Foresight as a Leadership Attribute

by Randy Emelo | Talent Management

 

Vision has been among the most coveted and discussed leadership qualities of the past two decades. This much sought-after trait allows leaders to guide their organizations by creating meaning and purpose. When applied strategically, this translates into practical plans and meaningful work.

 

Attaining this critical skill often comes through the use of foresight. This does not mean guessing about the future of forecasting current trends. Foresight means identifying relevant opportunities that are emerging and strategizing how to make the most of them today.

 

Agilent Technologies understands the critical nature of foresight and how it can positively impact the organization, product offerings and customer experiences. "We have to anticipate and lead technology and market waves," said Darlene Solomon, Agilent's chief technology officer. "We need to pay attention to trends so that, with the right opportunities on our radar screen, we can make the best possible investment decisions and trade-offs."

 

This vital skill impacts almost every facet of leadership. For example, leaders with foresight are able to make better decisions because they act while they still have multiple options. They keep themselves open to future alternatives and can take action when needed.

 

Similarly, leaders can engage in more effective strategic planning by leveraging foresight. When this occurs, they can accurately construct success scenarios and validate their plausibility in advance because they look ahead in the right manner. This eliminates tunnel vision and allows them to take advantage of multiple opportunities that may arise.

 

"In Agilent, we must determine our R&D investment priorities well ahead of clear market demand," Solomon said. "That's the only way we can achieve technology breakthroughs and offer the right products at the right time for emerging market needs."

 

The Right Balance

 

While foresight is a critical leadership skill to possess, it is not always the easiest to hone. People can get stuck in the past, causing them to aim low today to avoid repeating difficulties. In other cases, leaders run the risk of fixating on the present, simply projecting current consumer demand, revenue growth or labor needs from this quarter into the next without clear thoughts about the future. Others can look so far into the future that they become disconnected from reality.

 

The most difficult part of exercising effective foresight is knowing how far into the future to project in order to have the greatest impact and relevance.

 

Pioneering psychologist and management scientist Elliott Jacques suggested that the one unifying principle of effective leadership is the management of time. In his time span of discretion theory, the higher up in the organizational hierarchy people rise, the more responsibility they have and consequently the longer time span they need to operate from. In essence, this means that higher-level leaders need to practice foresight that looks out into the future at a greater distance than people who are lower in the organizational hierarchy, such as individual contributors and managers. Yet these leaders need to leverage foresight to the right degree so they do not present themselves as seeming disconnected from reality or espousing an exaggerated future.

 

Collaborating to Develop Grounded Vision

 

Foresight is a dynamic process that changes swiftly, and most people fluctuate in applying it productively. The goal is to be able to call on foresight when needed and to feel confident that it will provide the insights necessary to lead effectively.

 

Four critical practices can develop productive foresight.

 

1. Collaborate.

People who lack foresight tend to discount the value of others' perspectives. Their monocular vision lacks the depth and feel of reality that can only be gained through genuine collaborative learning exchanges. Intentionally working with people who have different perspectives helps leaders better reflect constructively on the past, honestly evaluate present data or trends and thoughtfully consider multiple future options as part of strategic vision.

 

2. Reflect.

Foresight begins with the past, which holds the rhythms and patterns that give people clues about the future. The more leaders understand the past, the better equipped they will be to predict what's next. They need to train themselves to see signs in the past - and in the present - that can indicate actions for the future. Interacting with others about personal reflections helps test the assumptions and perceptions upon which leaders base their view of the future.

 

3. Envision.

Insightful reflection on past or present realities and trends needs to inform an actionable vision for the future. Envisioning includes sorting through the long-term implications of present trends for unexpected challenges and unexploited opportunities. It is not just picturing a preferable future but considering several possible futures. Leaders must look beyond current competitors and current products to see where trends are taking their market. At the same time, leaders must scan the horizon for emerging technologies and practices that impact production and consumer behavior. Again, multiple perspectives are essential to create visionary possibilities that are powerful enough to inspire and grounded enough to be trusted.

 

4. Strategize.

Once leaders have discerned future opportunities, they need to consider their implications and meaning. They should gauge the effort, resources and time required for each opportunity to understand the impact it could have. Leaders can then create a detailed, workable plan, model or strategy that can bring this opportunity into reality. Monthly discussions with others about future possibilities and options can help leaders quickly adjust strategy and keep positive momentum moving forward toward end goals.

 

Networked Learning Is Imperative for Leaders

 

Throughout this productive foresight process, collaborating with others is critical for leaders to be successful. Developing a foresight network of advisers, subject-matter experts, collaborators and thought leaders across one's enterprise and from different generations and backgrounds is essential to create a vision of the future that is flexible, creative and realistic.

 

Agilent practices this technique with great success. "Our multidisciplinary teams collaborate extensively across our businesses and with thought leaders in academic, government and industrial research venues. These relationships also augment and validate the value of our research," Solomon said.

 

To be as effective as possible, leaders need to engage with advisers across the organization, throughout various job levels and outside the organization, if possible. Cross-functional collaboration helps arm leaders with experiences, information and relationships that can provide them with a broader view and understanding of the entire organization. This, in turn, can help them develop a more enterprisewide strategic mindset.

 

The same can be said for relationships that occur throughout an organization's hierarchy. Leaders can connect with people higher in the organizational chart to understand the bigger picture, to get an idea of resources that are typically beyond their purview and to navigate political channels. Leaders can connect with people at a peer level to innovate, commiserate, brainstorm, generate ideas and gain fresh or unique perspectives. Leaders can connect downward in the organizational hierarchy to get in touch with emerging trends, methodologies and technologies.

 

Collaborating with a network of advisers creates a robust, first-person knowledge repository that leaders can tap into as they work on critical skills such as foresight. This provides learning connections where people can reflect on the past and present to develop strategies for their future work responsibilities. Investing at least one or two hours a month to think reflectively, collaboratively and consider future responsibilities can benefit any individual and any organization.

 

Foresight and Leadership Domains

 

Leaders who practice foresight effectively do not get trapped in the past or the present, but rather envision a preferred future. They see the possibilities and lead others toward these opportunities. Foresight is such an integral leadership quality that the ability to project it effectively directly impacts several leadership domains.

 

There is no clearer example of this than the response to the mobile Internet market. In March 2000, Palm Inc. issued its much anticipated initial public offering (IPO). When the dust settled at the end of the day, the $95 per share price tag gave Palm a $38 billion dollar market value. At the same time, shares of Apple were trading around $30. Yet, when Palm was acquired by HP in July 2010, shares of Palm stood at less than $6, while shares for Apple hovered around $260 and were climbing. The effective use, or lack thereof, of foresight concerning the mobile Internet wave was a defining difference between these organizations' situations.

 

Foresight has a strong effect on five leadership domains:

 

1. Decision making:

With foresight, leaders can explore multiple options that can leverage trends. Without foresight, leaders run the risk of not having time to leverage multiple options and instead being forced to react to the market, often too late.

 

Palm released a Web-oriented operating system (webOS) in 2009, two years after Apple introduced the world to the iPhone. By then Palm was following Apple, which had already defined the future of mobile communication devices with touch screen technology and open architecture that allowed for thousands of applications that personalized the user experience.

 

2. Enacting change:

With foresight, leaders can anticipate resistance to change and minimize any negative effects. Without foresight, leaders stumble blindly through unanticipated barriers and resistance.

 

In 2009, when the Palm Pre was launched, many were convinced that every problem had been solved and the Palm would dominate the "old" iPhone, causing Palm's stock price to jump from less than $5 a share to $18. But people had not anticipated that Apple would counter with a lower price for the iPhone and introduce a new, improved 3G version or that Google would enter the market with the Android operating system.

 

3. Visioning:

With foresight, leaders communicate clearly about exciting future possibilities. Without foresight, leaders will find it difficult to see or act beyond current trends, often ending up one step behind.

 

In 2010, visionary Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, extending the use of iPhone technology and applications into the mobile computing world. Palm, now out of vision and options, was acquired by HP in July 2010, with the company hoping to improve Palm's webOS for use in multiple mobile Internet devices.

 

4. Strategic planning:

With foresight, leaders can accurately construct success scenarios and validate their plausibility in advance. Without foresight, leaders run the risk of only projecting current trends into the future and missing opportunities.

 

In hindsight, the trajectories of both Palm and Apple were set years earlier. When Palm was still trying to figure out how to turn a PDA into a phone, Steve Jobs was taking a look at a tablet-sized, developmental touch screen prototype. As can be seen in a YouTube video of Jobs, he said to himself, "My God, we can build a phone out of this!" He saw the strategic importance of defining and dominating the phone market first and later launching the tablet as an extension of that market.

 

5. Motivation skills:

With foresight, leaders can project a future full of realistic promise. Without foresight, leaders may not be able to communicate more than what is already apparent.

 

In the 10 years since Palm stumbled from the PDA market leader to a market follower, Apple persuasively charted a bold new direction for the mobile Internet market. The use of foresight made the difference.

 

 

[About the Author: Randy Emelo is president and CEO of Triple Creek Associates.]